186: Chapter 186: Jiang Zhe's Formula for Calculating Cosmic Civilizations

As Jiang Zhe's voice trailed off, the air in the living room seemed to freeze for two and a half seconds.

"A... Formula?" Xiao Yu's beautiful eyes widened. She knew her brother was knowledgeable, ranging from the akashic records to the zero-point field, from fortune-telling and metaphysics to parallel universes...

But a formula that could calculate the number of alien civilizations... This was completely beyond her definition of "amazing."

Even the operations manager, Wang Shulin, monitoring the data in the hotel, kept smoking cigarette after cigarette. "Damn, I knew you were awesome, but I didn't expect you to be *this* awesome!"

At this moment, the barrage of comments surged in like a tide.

"Holy crap? A formula? Does such a thing really exist?"

"I'm stunned. Can the number of civilizations really be calculated? Isn't this even more intense than the fermi paradox?"

"I don't believe it. This must be scripted. I admit he was awesome on the TV station last night, but this time it's definitely scripted!"

"Are you new here? My brother never relies on scripts to shut people up; he's always for real!"

"If it's real, what should this formula be called—a Cosmic Civilization Calculator?"

"I'm nervous, I'm nervous! I feel like the ceiling is being raised by my brother; I won't be able to watch the low-level videos of other science popularizers anymore."

"Exactly. Other science popularizers are still eating leftovers, talking about Quantum Entanglement for seven days straight, whereas for my brother, Quantum Entanglement is just a one-sentence matter..."

Clearly, Jiang Zhe's latest breakthrough made some veteran viewers feel like their worldview was shattering.

You see, being a dozen steps ahead of others might be acceptable, but they couldn't accept someone their own age constantly proposing new formulas and tossing out various hypotheses with such ease...

Is this really a 25-year-old young man????

At this moment, not only the viewers but even the experts and teachers felt extremely complicated.

In the Kyoto residential compound, the four professors—Professor Chen Runzhi, Professor Liu Guangyi, Qian Mingyi, and Professor Wang Shouren—looked at each other, seeing the shock on one another's faces.

They had just been in the philosophical horror of the end of the universe... and now it jumped straight to a calculable alien civilization formula???

The extent of this mental leap was too much for their brains to process.

In the Principal's office, Principal Fu, Wang Shulin, and Xiao Wang all looked at Old Yu in unison. Old Yu sat with his mouth agape, and after a long while, he gasped, "Hiss... Is he trying to package astronomy and cosmic sociology together using mathematics?"

In the Huaqing University professor's living room, Ouyang Baili, Professor Wu, Li Mo, Guan Jingming, and others subconsciously sat up straight.

The blue light from the screen reflected off Ouyang Baili's glasses, and his brow was furrowed.

A formula that could calculate the number of interstellar civilizations?

If this were true, its significance would far exceed Jiang Zhe's black hole hypothesis and sun hypothesis from the past few days. This was a concrete discovery that could fully contribute to the astronomical community; while it might not win a Nobel Prize, it would at least elevate his reputation in the field!

On the other side, in Qingfeng Temple, Professor Zhang Qinian, after his initial shock, almost laughed out loud.

"A formula... to calculate the number of alien civilizations?" He shook his head speechlessly, his tone becoming stern. "Young people these days are too arrogant. The fermi paradox has been proposed for decades, and countless wise men have tried to answer where the aliens are, yet there is still no conclusion."

"A formula that can calculate a specific number?"

"If that existed, it would have shocked the world and won every Nobel Prize by now!"

He turned his head to look at Zheng Ming, Celestial Master Zhang, and Wang Chongyang. "Astrophysics is a science of observation and empirical evidence, not a numbers game. How could it be summarized by a formula? This is simply..."

On the big screen, inside the living room, Xiao Yu looked at her brother's confident expression, her brows furrowed to the extreme. "Brother, are... are you serious?"

"Is this Formula J really... something you came up with, and not a joke?"

Jiang Zhe looked at Xiao Yu's bewildered expression and nodded calmly. "Yes. Formula J, this formula, stems from my essential deconstruction of the existence of civilizations—it may not be perfect, but it absolutely provides a framework for breaking down and rationally estimating cosmic civilizations."

He then picked up the calligraphy brush from the table, dipped it in ink, and walked over to the large blank sheet of paper next to the living room TV—this was the brush, ink, paper, and inkstone left behind by the villa's previous owner, who enjoyed landscape painting and often practiced at home.

Under Xiao Yu's astonished gaze, he used the brush to fluently write on the paper: [ N = A × B × C × D × E × F × G ]

"Look, this is the core of Formula J." Jiang Zhe turned around and looked at Xiao Yu. "Since the original formula was too complex, I simplified it into a formula that even you can understand."

Xiao Yu was stunned, and then the corners of her mouth couldn't help but twitch. "Brother, I can understand it, but what does N mean?"

He nodded gently and continued to explain:

"N: This is what we humans ultimately want to know—how many active intelligent civilizations capable of interstellar communication exist in the Milky Way at this very moment."

"A: The average rate of star formation in the Milky Way; that is, approximately how many new suns are born each year."

"B: The proportion of these stars that actually possess planetary systems."

"C: The average number of planets in systems with planets that are in the habitable zone and have environments capable of harboring life."

"D: The probability that life actually emerges on such planets with suitable conditions."

"E: Among these life forms, the probability of evolving intelligence, where such intelligence must be able to think and create technology like us."

"F: The proportion of intelligent civilizations that develop interstellar communication technology, such as radio, and have the willingness to use it."

"G—" Jiang Zhe's brush tip dotted heavily on that letter. "This is the soul of the formula, and also the most core unknown variable!"

"After a civilization masters interstellar communication capabilities, how long does its [technological active period] last on average—is it a fleeting few hundred years, or does it span ten thousand years or even longer, like one hundred thousand years?"

He turned around, his gaze landing on Xiao Yu's surprised face. "My Formula J reveals a somewhat interesting logic—for instance, the magnitude of N depends extremely heavily on our estimate of G."

"And the length of G directly determines whether the universe is dead silent or bustling with noise."

At this moment, Xiao Yu and countless viewers, teachers, and experts were staring intently at the formula.

Although they had had a thought that perhaps Jiang Zhe might have such a formula, but! They had never imagined that this formula... would be so professional!

At this moment, the incredibly resourceful viewers had already started to ponder what numbers to fill in while marveling at it.

"I know A; our Milky Way births 1 to 3 stars per year. Let's take the median value: 2!"

"B looks quite high now; the Kepler telescope has discovered so many exoplanets, I think 0.8 will do."

"For C, the average number of planets in systems with planets that are in the habitable zone and have environments capable of harboring life might be a bit lower. Let's take a minimum value: 0.1?"

"D and E, these two feel like metaphysics!"

"F, not all intelligent civilizations would necessarily want to expose themselves, right?"

"As for G, it's terrifying to think about; it might be very short. How many years have humans even had nuclear weapons?"

In Qingfeng Temple, Professor Zhang Qinian folded his arms, looking judgmental. "Hmph, the framework is set up quite convincingly; it resembles certain thought experiment frameworks."

"But the key is, do you dare to fill in the numbers—every variable is an abyss. Does the resulting outcome have any credibility?"

He was convinced that Jiang Zhe would either not dare to fill it in or would fill in absurd numbers, thereby destroying his own reputation.

In the living room, Jiang Zhe looked at Xiao Yu, his eyes encouraging, and nodded slightly. "Xiao Yu, empty talk is useless. Why don't we try filling it in—using a set of relatively conservative values based on current astronomical and biological knowledge."

Xiao Yu sat up straight, her beautiful eyes shining, and nodded repeatedly. "Okay, okay, okay!"

"A, the Milky Way star formation rate, let's take 2 per year."

"B, the proportion of stars with planets; based on existing observations, we'll conservatively take 0.5 = 50%."

"C, the number of planets in the habitable zone, let's take 0.2: 1 for every 5 systems."

"D, the probability of the origin of life; the rapid appearance of life in the early Earth gives us some inspiration, but we'll still conservatively take 0.01: 1% of habitable planets give birth to life."

"E, the probability of intelligence evolution; considering Earth's billions of years of life history, the emergence of intelligence seems difficult, so let's take 0.001: 0.1%."

"F, the proportion that develops interstellar communication technology; assuming technological development is a natural path, let's take 0.1: 10% of intelligent civilizations can achieve this."

"G, the lifespan of a technological civilization..."

Filling in up to this point, Jiang Zhe paused for a few seconds and said with a grave expression: "On this point, I can only take a very pessimistic and cautionary number: 200 years—assuming that after a civilization masters powerful technology, it can only maintain peace and activity for an average of two hundred years, and then it may fall silent or be destroyed due to war, disaster, or internal strife."

Because greed is human nature; at least the lower the civilization level, the greedier humans are! As a member of the think tank, he really couldn't be overly optimistic about humanity's future.

Even though 266 years have passed since the Industrial Revolution, he still took the most pessimistic 200 years!!!

"Now, Xiao Yu, you calculate it."

Xiao Yu had already prepared her mobile phone calculator and excitedly tapped in: 2x0.5 x0.2 x0.01 x0.001 x0.1 x200. The result popped up quickly.

"0.0000004?" Xiao Yu read out the number and was stunned herself. "This... Brother, this N, the number of civilizations capable of intelligent communication, is far less than 1—does this mean that according to this calculation, it is almost impossible for another civilization capable of talking to us to exist in the Milky Way at the same time?"

"Yes."

Jiang Zhe nodded regretfully, his gaze gradually deepening. "If G is only a short two hundred years, and the other probabilities are just as harsh, then the result N will approach zero."

"This perfectly explains one possibility of the fermi paradox—it's not that no civilizations have ever been born, but that their technological window of opportunity is too short, like a spark that extinguishes in an instant in the dark night. In the vast Milky Way and the long river of time, it is almost impossible for them to encounter each other—this is the mathematical expression of the Great Silence."

This number, far less than 1, caused an uproar among the tens of millions of viewers in the live stream and made them feel a chill. We, perhaps, in the Milky Way... are alone!!!