187: Chapter 187: There are 20 alien civilizations communicating within the Milky Way!

Inside Qingfeng Temple.

Professor Zhang Qinian raised an eyebrow slightly. "He actually dared to calculate it?"

He had originally assumed Jiang Zhe would spout out dozens, hundreds, or thousands.

That would have been his chance to rebuke Jiang Zhe for being irresponsible, but he... was being so responsible...

This left Professor Zhang feeling a bit embarrassed to voice his opinion.

The key was: this calculation, based on extremely conservative parameters—especially G = 200—while pessimistic in its result, seemed to have... no obvious logical flaws!

The next moment!

As Jiang Zhe changed the subject, "However,"

His eyes gradually sharpened. "Xiao Yu, what if we changed the set of parameters?"

"What if the emergence of life and intelligence is not a miracle, but rather a natural phenomenon arising from complex systems under the right conditions?"

"What if a civilization, after surviving the crisis of a certain technological adolescence, is absolutely capable of achieving long-term stability, and even greatly extending its period of technological activity?"

"In that case, we can adjust a few values, keeping them within a reasonable range of speculation, but now we can be a bit more optimistic!"

Xiao Yu and countless viewers sat up straight.

"D, the probability of the origin of life, increase it to 0.1."

"E, the probability of the evolution of intelligence, increase it to 0.01."

"And G, the technological lifetime of a civilization... assuming a civilization can overcome its early crises and then develop stably, this active window might reach: 10,000 years."

"Calculate these figures again, Xiao Yu."

He stopped his pen, turned around, and his gaze fell back upon Xiao Yu.

Xiao Yu quickly entered the new values into her phone: 2x0.5 x0.2 x0.1 x0.01 x0.1 x10000.

Confirm!

20!

The moment the calculation result popped up, Xiao Yu couldn't help but gasp, "Hiss~," and covered her mouth.

"20?" Xiao Yu's voice was filled with disbelief.

"That's right." Jiang Zhe nodded gently. "According to this set of relatively optimistic, yet still reasonable parameters, there may be about 20 active civilizations in our Milky Way right now that possess the capability for interstellar communication."

"And the significance of Brother's Formula J does not lie in providing one exact, unique number; rather, it lies in clearly demonstrating that the number of potential civilizations in the Milky Way has a startling sensitivity to a few key probability factors—especially the technological lifetime G of intelligent civilizations."

"N can be so small that it is nearly zero, explaining why we humans feel lonely; it can also be as large as a two-digit number or even more; this suggests that the Milky Way might be a quite lively galactic community, and as a fledgling civilization, we haven't discovered them yet, perhaps simply because our technology has only just begun and our methods are still very immature."

"But no matter how the parameters are chosen, as long as those key probabilities—such as the birth of life D, the emergence of intelligence E, and technological development F—are not zero; as long as the civilization's technological lifetime G does not infinitely approach zero..."

At this point, he nodded slightly and gave a definitive conclusion:

"Then, the number of detectable civilizations N in the Milky Way, as calculated by Formula J, has a mathematical lower limit that, logically, is by no means an absolute zero!"

"It is almost impossible for us humans to be the only flame of civilization that has blossomed and exists."

As his voice trailed off, the living room fell silent. Xiao Yu and countless viewers were stunned into speechlessness.

After a long while, a massive barrage of comments erupted in the livestream.

"The minimum is not 0, the minimum is not 0, did you hear that?"

"20 of them, if one civilization can survive from ancient times to the technological era, there are 20 neighbors in the Milky Way?"

"My God, the Milky Way is 100,000 light-years in diameter with hundreds of billions of stars. Even if we count the most, most, most optimistic 20... the ratio is shockingly low. But looking at it from the other side, a probability of one in several hundred billion can actually occur 20 times simultaneously?"

"This just goes to show that civilizations might not be that rare; rather, the base number is just too huge!"

"What if... what Brother said doesn't even include ancient civilizations? Ancient times didn't have signal communication. If we add dozens, hundreds, or even thousands to this base, what if some civilizations can live for 100,000 or a million years—would N be 200, or even 2000?"

"It's terrifying when you think about it. Could the reason we haven't discovered them be because... we are the little brats who just learned to shout their first cry, while they are already speaking in ways we cannot understand?"

"So, the Great Filter might not be filtering out all civilizations, but rather filtering out those that don't live long. Whoever lives the longest is the one qualified to be seen?"

"Damn, this is giving me goosebumps. Turns out the cosmic civilization race isn't about who appears first, but who lives the longest?"

"..." Clearly, millions of viewers were all gasping in shock.

They had thought Jiang Zhe was joking, but they didn't expect... holy crap, he could actually calculate it!!!

Inside Qingfeng Temple.

Zheng Ming recovered from his shock, his expression flickering between uncertainty and contemplation. "Professor, this algorithm—logically, it really seems like there's nothing to pick at... Especially since he used two sets of parameters with such stark contrast, resulting in one being nearly 0 and the other being 20. Why do I feel like he actually appears more objective because of it?"

Professor Zhang Qinian took a deep breath, his eyes fixed intently on the formula and the result on the wall.

As an astronomy researcher, he knew the scale of the Milky Way and the base number of stars all too well; with hundreds of billions of stars, even if the probability of each step was shockingly low, as long as it wasn't zero, then with such a massive base... the resulting N could indeed hardly be absolute zero!

And Jiang Zhe hadn't given a definitive answer, but instead presented a probability range! This expression was too rigorous, leaving him unable to find a point to rebuke for the moment.

"Hmph." Professor Zhang snorted coldly. "He's quite cunning, not jumping to conclusions directly."

"But this formula... this line of thinking... it does provide a framework worth pondering in astronomy... However, the premise for everything is that those probability factors are estimated reasonably. And what is 'reasonable' is in itself the biggest point of contention."

...

Inside the Principal's office.

Old Yu's eyes flickered, and he gasped, "Impressive... truly impressive!"

"He didn't say there definitely are, nor did he say there definitely aren't; but he used the language of mathematics to tell us: as long as the probability that the universe allows for the emergence of life and intelligence is not zero, and as long as it is possible for a civilization to survive its technological adolescence; then, in the massive probability pool of the Milky Way, the probability of us encountering our own kind is definitely not 0!"

He looked at Principal Fu, Old Wang, and Xiao Wang, his eyes filled with immense excitement.

"This is far more powerful than those ordinary people shouting 'there must be aliens' or 'there are no aliens'."

"Ordinary people don't know professional knowledge and can only guess yes or no; this Jiang Zhe is using scientific weapons to attack the weaknesses in astronomy!"

Principal Fu nodded as if he understood, also infected by the atmosphere. "So, our Earth, in the universe, might be neither lonely nor particularly special?"

"That's right!"

...

In Beijing, at the History Staff Quarters.

Professor Liu Guangyi rested his chin on his hand and said, "At least 20... If this lower limit holds, then from the perspective of ecological niches and evolution, we humans are very likely at the very end of this sequence of [at least 20] intelligent civilizations!"

"Why?" Professor Chen Runzhi looked over.

"It's very simple!" Professor Liu analyzed. "If other intelligent civilizations exist and they can be included in the [detectable] range by this formula, it means they have at least reached a level of radio technology similar to ours in the mid-20th century."

"But considering the age of the Milky Way: over 10 billion years, compared to the relatively young 4.6 billion years of the Solar System and Earth—any civilization born millions, tens of millions, or even hundreds of millions of years before us could theoretically have a technological level far beyond our imagination."

Pausing for a few seconds, he stated the key point:

"The fact that we haven't scanned any conclusive alien intelligent signals to date might not mean the signals don't exist, but rather that—the tools we use to listen, which are radio waves, might be—in the face of more advanced civilization communication methods—like trying to monitor global internet traffic with a bamboo tube."

"This is completely not on the same dimension, because we are too immature!"

This speculation left Old Qian and Old Wang silent for a moment.

For some reason, they felt... this was reasonable, very logical, and perfectly sensible!

...

At Huaqing University, in Professor Ouyang Baili's dormitory.

Professor Wu was surprised for a long time before nodding undeniably. "I thought he would just make up data, but I didn't expect he was playing for real!"

"Although the parameters are somewhat uncertain, the enlightening significance of the model itself is immense!"

Ouyang Baili's eyes were burning. "The key is that he pointed out the core status of G, the technological lifetime of a civilization."

"This is not a technical problem, but more of a test of the sociology, philosophy, and even survival wisdom within an intelligent civilization."

"How far a civilization can go might not depend on whether they can light up their technology tree, but on whether it can avoid being swallowed by its own technology!"

Li Mo and Professor Guan exchanged a glance; they were computer people, so they naturally recognized this concept even more.

Professor Guan, however, said thoughtfully: "I've discovered that this Formula J model implies... silence should be the normal state of a civilization, perhaps even a sign of maturity or caution; civilizations that actively broadcast are either extremely young and curious, or... extremely confident and powerful."

As his voice fell, Old Wu, Ouyang, Li Mo, and the others all looked over, feeling a chill run down their spines.

After a long while, on the big screen.

Xiao Yu had digested these mind-boggling answers. She kept taking deep breaths, calming her excited, restless heart.

Looking at her calm and composed brother, she couldn't help but ask the most crucial question.

"Brother... if, if it really is as Formula J calculates, and there are very likely other intelligent civilizations in our Milky Way—even if there are only 20—why haven't we discovered even a trace of them until now?"