141: Chapter 138 Rare Earth Smelting

Fatima froze for a moment. "China?"

"China has rare earth smelting capabilities, and they don't have direct conflicting interests with Iran," Reza said. "Have Karimi check China's technical export policy toward Iran in 1981, and see if there are any existing official channels we can use for material procurement."

"But China also has dealings with Iraq—"

"I know, they sell to both sides, just like Haq, but that doesn't stop me from buying things from them," Reza said. "Investigate first, and once that's done, we'll decide whether to negotiate."

Fatima nodded and stood up to leave.

Reza stopped her. "In the test report, what is the current theoretical interception success rate for the Persia-4?"

"Under the characteristic parameters of a Scud Missile, the seeker's tracking success rate is theoretically seventy-eight percent," Fatima said. "The actual interception success rate, accounting for terminal maneuvers and atmospheric interference, is roughly between sixty and sixty-five percent."

"Sixty-five," Reza repeated. "That means for every two launched, one might not be intercepted."

"Yes, so we need dual launches. By firing two at a single target, the interception success rate increases to about eighty-seven percent."

"Dual launching means ammunition consumption will be double the original amount," Reza said. "The mass production quantity needs to be adjusted upward from the original basis. Take the number we originally set and multiply it by 1.5."

Fatima's expression changed again. "The pressure will be immense."

"I know," Reza said, "but Saddam Hussein has fourteen launchers. Even if we take out three, there are still eleven. If eleven are launched simultaneously, calculate how many Persia-4 missiles we'll need."

Fatima didn't do the math on the spot, but she understood what that number implied.

As she left the room, her pace was half a beat faster than when she entered—the subconscious reaction of an engineer picking up speed after realizing the scale of a problem.

Reza closed the test report, wrote a line of numbers in his notebook, and then wrote a sentence next to the numbers:

"The difference between insufficient weaponry and no weaponry is simply dying a little slower."

(End of Chapter 110)

Chapter 111: Laurel

October 7, 1981, Basra.

Mahdavi's first water supply station was completed, nine days ahead of schedule.

Reza received the notification in Ahvaz. He didn't go to the site, but he had Mahdavi write a brief report on the situation of the day the water was turned on—two pages, focusing on details rather than format.

The brief stated: The water was turned on at two in the afternoon. Several main pipelines in the southern city were opened simultaneously. For the first few minutes, the water pressure was unstable, and the water coming out was yellow and turbid, but the people waiting by the roadside still filled their containers. Several elderly people cried on the spot—not loud wailing, but the kind where tears just flow down on their own.

Reza finished reading the two pages and set them aside without writing anything in his notebook.

He thought for a while and then sent a reply to Mahdavi: Do not slacken the progress of the second water supply station just because the first was finished early; maintain the rhythm. Also, send a water quality test report every week after the water is turned on; do not wait for a problem to arise before checking.

Then he turned his attention back to the matter that had specifically brought him to Basra today.

Rajai's intelligence department had confirmed something three days ago: the captured Iraqi scout from the intelligence station code-named 'Laurel' was preparing for a new infiltration operation.

The confirmation came from information obtained from the scout—he had broken down in the later stages of interrogation. He wasn't broken by physical force, but by the logic Reza had suggested last time: the less you say, the more danger your comrades are in, because we will assume you are hiding a lot and investigate your superiors even more vigorously. Once your superior is exposed, think for yourself what will happen to your family.

This wasn't a bluff; it was making his sunk costs clear and letting him do the math himself.

Among the things he finally revealed, one piece was of extremely high value: after the Port of Basra reopened, Laurel Station planned to plant a long-term intelligence agent in the port. This agent wasn't being infiltrated from the outside but was a local already living in Basra. He had been in contact with Laurel Station before the war and had been lying low since the ceasefire, waiting to be activated.

After Reza arrived at Rajai's command center, he first read the full interrogation transcript of the scout, then called Karimi and Rajai in together.

"That local informant," Reza said, "how do they plan to activate him?"

"What the scout knows is that after the port reopens, Laurel Station will send a signal to that informant through a liaison on a cargo ship. He doesn't know exactly what the signal is," Rajai said, "but he knows that cargo ship is coming from the direction of Umm Qasr and is flying under a Kuwaiti registry."

"Kuwaiti registry, departing from Umm Qasr," Reza repeated. "Among the first batch of cargo ships entering the port, how many will fit that description?"

"There are three to four shipping companies in Kuwait doing business toward Basra. About seven to ten ships in the first batch will come from the direction of Kuwait," Mahdavi interjected. He was also present because he was responsible for the port's reopening. "Flying a Kuwaiti flag but departing from Iraq's port of Umm Qasr—that route doesn't make sense. Umm Qasr was still under Iraqi control during the ceasefire. Normal Kuwaiti merchant ships wouldn't take such a long detour to depart from there, unless—"

"Unless the ship itself isn't a normal commercial operation," Reza said. "It needs that detour to pick someone up at Umm Qasr, or swap a batch of cargo, or both."

"Then do we intercept this ship, or let it in?" Rajai asked.

It was a question with two correct answers, depending on what you wanted.

Intercepting it would allow them to catch the liaison and terminate this activation operation, but Laurel Station's local informant would continue to lie low, and you wouldn't know who he was.

Letting it in meant keeping an eye on the ship, following it until the moment the liaison and the local informant made contact, and then taking both of them down at once, exposing Laurel Station's network in Basra.

"Let it in," Reza said. "Is the intelligence team at the port ready?"

"Three people, they started their watch last week," Rajai said. "Karimi's people trained them; they're basically sufficient."

"Not enough," Reza said. "This mission is more complex than routine monitoring. We need to tail someone, to tail a trained liaison without being exposed. Three people aren't enough, and if we lose them, everything is gone."

"Then what should we do?"

Reza thought for a moment, running the entire operation through his head.

"Mahdavi."