24: Chapter 24: Koum's Gunshot

January 7, 1978.

Reza had been waiting for this day in his office at the Governors Mansion for two and a half years.

On this morning, the official Iranian newspaper, Ettelaat, published an article signed by "Ahmad Rashidi" titled "Iran and Red and Black Colonialism." The article depicted Ayatollah Khomeini as a "hypocritical cleric colluding with foreign powers," an "exile who does not understand Iran's national conditions," and a "fake Sayyid of Indian descent."

Every sentence was like a knife, precisely stabbing the most sensitive nerves of the Shia believers.

This article was not written on a whim by some journalist. It was instigated by SAVAK and personally approved by Shah Pahlavi—the aim was to use public opinion to strike at Ayatollah Khomeini's influence within the country.

The history of his past life proved that this was the stupidest mistake the Pahlavi regime ever made. Bar none.

On the afternoon the article was published, Qom—Iran's most important religious holy city—broke out in massive protests. Thousands of seminary students and citizens took to the streets, shouting "Down with the Shah" and "Long live Ayatollah Khomeini."

SAVAK and the Gendarmerie were ordered to suppress them.

Shots were fired.

People died.

As for exactly how many died, the official report said two, while the opposition claimed seventy. The real number was likely between ten and twenty. But the number didn't matter—what mattered was that "shots were fired." In a Shia country, firing on religious students was equivalent to firing on Allah.

The Shia have a tradition—a memorial ceremony is held on the fortieth day after a person's death. The memorial ceremony would turn into a new protest. The new protest would be suppressed. Suppression would produce new deaths. The new deaths would trigger new memorials and protests forty days later.

A "death spiral" with a forty-day cycle.

From January to December 1978, this spiral turned for a full year, spinning faster and faster, eventually consuming the entire Pahlavi Dynasty.

Reza knew all of this.

He knew the timing of every forty-day cycle, the cities where every protest broke out, and the Shah Pahlavi's wrong decisions at every stage.

This was his greatest weapon—not missiles, not landmines, but a precise grasp of the future.

But knowing the future and utilizing the future are two different things.

By the time the news of the gunshots in Qom reached Khuzestan, it was already night. Hassan rushed into the office with the news, his expression looking as if he had swallowed an iron nail.

"Your Highness, something happened in Qom. The Shah's men opened fire on the students."

"How many died?"

"At least ten. Possibly more. The news is still coming in."

Reza put down the pen in his hand.

"Order this—the entire Khuzestan Province is to enter a 'state of alert.' Not publicly; don't alert SAVAK's spies. Have the contact Mullahs of all mosques on standby, waiting for my command. Additionally, all core militia members in Abadan and Ahvaz are to suspend their daily work and be ready to assemble at any time."

"Are we going to make a move?"

"Not making a move. Preparing. It's too early to act now—the events in Qom have just begun, and the nation's anger hasn't reached the tipping point yet. What we need to do is 'borrow the fire,' not 'set the fire.' The Shah lit the fire himself; we just need to pour oil on the flames at the right time."

"When is the 'right time'?"

Reza spread a calendar on the table and drew several circles on it with a red pen.

"February 18th. The fortieth-day memorial for the deceased in Qom. A second wave of protests will break out in Tabriz—larger and more violent than in Qom. The Shah will still suppress it then, and people will still die. And then—"

He drew another circle.

"March 29th. The fortieth-day memorial for the deceased in Tabriz. This time, the protests will spread to at least five cities. Then—April, May, June, July, August... a cycle every forty days, with each cycle's scale doubling the previous one. By September, oil field workers and civil servants across the country will begin to strike. By December, there will be wavering within the military."

He put the pen down and looked at Hassan.

"This is the Shah's end. It won't be a bullet that kills him—it's his own stupidity, cutting his own throat stroke by stroke."

Hassan stared at those red circles on the calendar, remaining silent for a long while.

"Your Highness... how do you know all this? How can you be so certain?"

This question was bound to come sooner or later.

Hassan had followed him for two and a half years, carrying out various missions involving assassination, smuggling, and intelligence warfare, never asking "why." But this time was different—it's clever for a person to predict an assassination, and it's experience to predict a storm, but to precisely predict the political direction of the next year, down to specific dates and cities—this was beyond the scope of "cleverness" and "experience."

Reza had long since prepared an answer.

"When I was in Tehran, I came across an internal SAVAK assessment report—leaked to me by one of the Shah's trusted officers. That report analyzed the 'worst-case scenario' that could result if the Shah took a hardline approach against religious forces. The report's conclusion was that once shots were fired in the holy city, it would trigger an uncontrollable 'forty-day chain reaction.' The author of the report advised the Shah—never to take action against religious institutions in Qom and Mashhad."

"And then?"

"Then the Shah dismissed that officer and shelved the report. Because the American advisors around the Shah told him—'tough suppression is the only way'."

Hassan's fist clenched.

"Americans," he said through gritted teeth.

"Yes. Americans." Reza's tone was as flat as if he were giving a weather forecast. "They don't care how many Iranians die. They only care if this dog Pahlavi can still guard the door for them. Once this dog is useless, they will not hesitate to swap it for a new one."

These words were the truth, and also a tactic.

The fact was: the United States indeed shifted its attitude toward Pahlavi from "full support" to "considering alternative options" between 1978 and 1979. The tactic was: wrapping this fact in the story of a "leaked internal SAVAK report," explaining Reza's "precognitive ability" without needing to reveal the true source of information—memories of a past life.

Hassan believed it.

Not because the story was seamless, but because he was willing to believe it. A person who has followed you for two and a half years and personally witnessed that all your predictions were accurate would not suddenly start doubting you at this point.