79: Chapter 76 The Chess Game Before the Storm

After the meeting ended, Farrokhzad stayed behind.

"There is something I would like to discuss with you privately," he said.

Reza gestured for him to sit.

"There are some people in the military," Farrokhzad said, "who have opinions about what you are doing in Khuzestan Province. They believe you are not a 'pure revolutionary,' and many of your actions—trading with the Soviet Union, the expansion of your autonomous power, and even your relationship with the Pahlavi—are pushing the limits for certain people."

Reza did not respond immediately; instead, he asked, "What do you think they will do?"

"I don't know yet," Farrokhzad said, "but I feel it is necessary to warn you that in Iran's current political environment, 'loyalty' is not a fixed concept; it changes as the situation shifts."

"I understand," Reza said. "You just need to focus on your own work. I will handle the rest."

Farrokhzad nodded and left.

Reza sat alone in the conference room, staring at the map on the wall for a long time.

Every point marked on this map—oil fields, refineries, border lines, missile sites—was the result of what he had accumulated bit by bit over the past five years. These achievements were now about to face a real test, and the answer to this test would be revealed in a few months.

He picked up a pen and wrote a sentence next to the map:

"Let Saddam Hussein come."

After writing it, he put down the pen, turned off the lights, and walked out of the conference room.

The night sky over Ahvaz was clear, and the stars were visible.

Those stars were the same ones Cyrus the Great had seen two thousand five hundred years ago.

May 1980, Ahvaz.

After entering May, the atmosphere along the border began to turn subtle.

In the intelligence briefings Reza received daily, the frequency of military movements on the Iraq side had significantly increased—not the kind of small-scale, covert rotations, but grand, full-division and full-brigade maneuvers. Organized armored units were moving southeast along the Euphrates River, the frequency of fighter jet takeoffs and landings at airbases had doubled, and logistical supply convoys were moving almost non-stop day and night on the road from Baghdad to Basra.

This was not the scale of an exercise, nor was it the scale of preparing for war; this was the scale of an imminent offensive.

But Reza was waiting for a more precise time window.

In his mind, he held the complete timeline of the Iran-Iraq War—September 22, 1980, Iraq launches a full-scale offensive. He had known this date at least six months earlier than anyone else, but what he needed was not just to know this date; he needed to know what Saddam Hussein would do in the four months leading up to this day.

What would he do?

Reza recalled the data in his mind: in the final months before the war broke out, Saddam Hussein did three key things. First, in April 1980, Iraq announced the abolition of the 1975 Algiers Agreement, unilaterally tearing up all terms regarding the border demarcation of the Shatt al-Arab; second, in July 1980, Iraq began to assemble large-scale forces in border areas; third, in September 1980, Saddam Hussein convened a military meeting in Baghdad, and after the meeting, he issued the order to "liberate the Shatt al-Arab."

Now it was May, exactly between the first and second phases.

On May 12, Reza received an unexpected message—Ayatollah Khomeini had summoned him, demanding he travel to Tehran immediately.

This news made Karimi uneasy: "Summoning you to Tehran at this point in time, could it be a trap?"

"It is not a trap," Reza said. "It is a test."

He packed simple luggage, took Hassan and twenty guards, and flew to Tehran that same day.

Ayatollah Khomeini's residence in Tehran was in the northern mountains, a simple villa without luxurious decorations; the living room contained only a few low chairs and a stove for boiling tea. When Reza entered, Ayatollah Khomeini was already waiting there, with only Khamenei by his side.

"Your Highness, please sit," Ayatollah Khomeini's voice was calm.

Reza sat down across from him and waited.

Ayatollah Khomeini picked up his teacup, took a sip, and then said, "I have heard that you are doing more and more in Khuzestan Province."

This was not a question, but a statement. There was no obvious hostility in his tone, but the calmness itself constituted a kind of pressure—when someone says "You are doing more and more" in this tone, it is not asking, it is forcing the other party to explain.

Reza did not evade: "Ayatollah, everything I do has only one goal—to ensure that Iran's core interests are not harmed. Every barrel of oil, every factory, and every armed force in Khuzestan is an asset of Iran, not my private property. I am merely ensuring that these assets are not wasted in the coming turmoil."

Ayatollah Khomeini's eyes did not leave him as he asked, "Turmoil? What kind of turmoil are you talking about?"

This question was very precise.

Reza knew that what Ayatollah Khomeini cared about most right now was not the oil production in Khuzestan, nor the missile factories, but the impending border war. From the top down, Iran knew that Iraq was assembling forces, but no one knew how this war would play out—historical experience told them that although the Iranian military was well-equipped during the Pahlavi era, morale was low and command was chaotic; after the revolution, the military had undergone massive purges, and its combat effectiveness was questionable.

"The turmoil I am referring to," Reza said, "is the offensive that Iraq is about to launch. I estimate that within four months, they will launch a full-scale offensive along the border, and the target is very likely the oil facilities in Abadan and along the Shatt al-Arab."

Ayatollah Khomeini's expression did not change, but the look in Khamenei's eyes beside him shifted.

"You estimate?" Ayatollah Khomeini said. "Not that you guess, but that you estimate."

"Ayatollah, I do not like to guess," Reza said. "I only make judgments when I have sufficient evidence. Right now, I have sufficient evidence in my hands."

"What evidence?"