190: Chapter 171 Traces

April 10, 1982, Ahvaz.

The first thing Reza did upon returning was not to hold a meeting or read reports.

He had Karimi print out the lists of participants for all classified meetings over the past three months, arranged chronologically, and then compared them one by one against the three pieces of information Walsh knew.

Persian-5 development schedule: Mentioned only at the three-person group meeting on April 4th, verbally, with no written record.

That tactical judgment framework: Reza wrote it into an internal analysis report at the end of March and distributed it to seven people.

Frontline troop numbers: From the frontline report on April 1st, with eleven participants.

Three pieces of information, three sources, the intersection was two people.

Reza wrote the two names on a piece of paper, stared at them for a moment, and crossed one out.

The one he crossed out had just lost his son on the front lines last month. A person in that state would not be able to maintain the rhythm of intelligence transmission.

The remaining name: Nasser Hosseini, a liaison officer for the Revolutionary Guard intelligence department, forty-one years old, who had worked in Reza's system for two years.

Reza folded the paper and put it into his pocket.

"Karimi," he said, "I want a complete record of Hosseini's movements over the last month. Don't let him know."

"How long?"

"Three days."

Karimi went out. Reza opened another file.

This was sent by Fatima yesterday, delivered by a messenger, without any explanation attached.

The file was about the defense assessment of the Khuzestan oil refinery area.

Fatima's conclusion was written on the last page, consisting of only one line: The current air defense configuration cannot cope with a saturation attack.

Reza read this line three times.

A saturation attack means launching more missiles simultaneously than the air defense system's interception limit, making it physically impossible for the air defense system to handle them all.

If Iraq fired all its remaining Scud missile(s) at the oil refinery area, combined with aerial bombardment, Iran's air defense system would be breached.

Once the oil refinery area stopped production, Iran's source of war funding would be cut off, and it would last at most six months.

Reza wrote a line in the blank space of the document and had the messenger send it back to Fatima: "How many Persia-4 are needed to handle a saturation attack?"

Forty minutes later, the reply came: "One hundred and twenty, we currently have sixty-three."

Reza pressed the reply onto the table and picked up another file.

This was the intelligence on Iraq's recent ammunition deployment compiled by Karimi.

Over the past two weeks, Iraq had transported a large number of Scud missile(s) to the southern front, with the quantity between forty and sixty; the intelligence source had medium credibility.

Reza placed the two documents side by side.

Iraq had forty to sixty, and Iran's interception limit was sixty-three.

If Iraq fired all of them, Iran could just hold out, but there would be no margin. If Iraq's actual number exceeded sixty-three, the oil refinery area would be breached.

This was not a situation that could be gambled on.

Reza stood up and walked to the window.

He thought of Walsh. Walsh knew about the oil refinery area, or rather, Walsh's reaction told Reza that the United States knew of Saddam Hussein's plan.

If the United States knew and did not stop it, then the United States had tacitly approved this attack.

But Walsh coming to see him indicated that the inside of the United States was not monolithic. Some wanted the war to continue, others wanted an exit for negotiation. Walsh was the latter.

Reza returned to the table, picked up a pen, and wrote a letter to Walsh's intermediary.

The letter was short: "To what extent is the oil refinery area intelligence you shared with Iraq precise? I need to know which nodes are targets in their strike plan."

He sealed the letter and had the messenger send it out. Then he picked up the phone and called for Galani.

Galani came in, his boots still covered in mud; Reza was already used to it.

"The oil refinery area," Reza said, "if you were to defend it, how would you defend it?"

Galani stood in front of the map for a while.

"I wouldn't defend it," he said. "Don't defend a place that cannot be defended."

"Then what should be done?"

"Let them strike," Galani said, "but before they strike, move the key equipment of the oil refinery area out."

Reza looked at him.

"Refinery equipment," Reza said, "is not guns or ammunition; it is industrial equipment weighing dozens of tons."

"I know," Galani said, "but if we can move the core control systems and key Pump Station equipment underground, if the oil refinery area is bombed, the repair time will be shortened from one year to three months."

Reza was silent for a moment.

"Three months," he said, "can we hold on for three months?"

"If we open up alternative export channels at the same time," Galani said, "we can."

Reza wrote a few lines in his notebook.

"Go make a detailed plan," he said. "Give it to me within three days."

Galani left. In the afternoon, Karimi returned.

"Hosseini," he said, "over the past month, he has been to Tehran four times, each time asking for leave citing private matters."

"Who did he see in Tehran?"

"We only tracked him twice," Karimi said, "once was his cousin, who does business in Tehran. The other time, he went to a mosque and stayed there for nearly two hours."

"Which mosque?"

Karimi said the name. Reza paused. That mosque was the location of the dead drop used by Mirza.

"Does he know about that mosque?" Reza asked.

"He shouldn't," Karimi said. "The only people who knew about Mirza's case were you, me, and the two people who executed him."

"Then him going there," Reza said, "is either a coincidence, or he already knew about that place."

"If he already knew," Karimi said, "then he and Mirza are from the same network."

Reza took the folded paper out of his pocket, unfolded it again, and looked at Hosseini's name.

"Continue surveillance," he said. "Do not alert him. I want our people waiting inside the next time he goes to that mosque."

"Yes."

"Also," Reza said, "from now on, I will control the intelligence Hosseini can access. I will decide what he sees."

Karimi nodded and went out. Reza sat in the office, looking out the window. It was getting dark.

The three-month countdown had already passed six days.

He wrote a line in his notebook: "Internal problems are harder to deal with than external ones. Because you cannot solve them with bombs."

He closed the notebook. The phone rang. It was Fatima.

"Persian-5 parts," she said, "the first batch of captured Iraqi equipment has arrived, and we have salvaged thirty-seven usable components."

"Is it enough?"

"Enough for one prototype," Fatima said, "but the second prototype is still missing fourteen components."

"Keep looking," Reza said. "I have already sent word to the front lines."

"One more thing," Fatima said, "Hussein was discharged from the hospital today."

Reza paused.

"How is his recovery?"

"The doctor says he needs three more months of rest," Fatima said, "but he says he wants to come back to work."

"Let him rest," Reza said. "We'll talk after three months."

The phone hung up. Reza leaned back in his chair.

Hussein was out of the hospital. This was the only thing today that made him feel at ease.